Despite her lead in the latest 2028 presidential surveys, a political analyst believes that Vice President Sara Duterte remains beatable in the upcoming elections.

In his column for The Philippine Star, Andrew Masigan said Duterte, despite her durable base, is not a shoo-in for the presidency due to her corruption issues, declining approval ratings, and her China bias.

“All these are why Sara Duterte is not a shoo-in for the presidency. Yes, she is formidable with a durable base – but she is also a polarizing figure, tainted by allegations of corruption and plagued by declining approval ratings,” Masigan said.

“Her China bias is also a disadvantage. All these amid the electorate’s increasing intolerance for corruption, incompetence and treachery could prove to be her Achilles heel,” he added.

While Duterte will likely survive the impeachment case even if it reaches the Senate, Masigan said her acquittal will come at an enormous cost to her chances of winning the presidency, especially with the issue of billions of pesos in her bank accounts hanging over her head.

“We’ve already seen the narrative flip last week. Bank records showing P6.77 billion passing through the accounts linked to Sara Duterte and Manases Carpio were enough to turn off millions of Filipinos. It revealed true colors, shook public confidence and reinforced festering allegations of corruption,” Masigan said.

He also noted that Duterte’s approval rating, while still high, has settled into the low-50s range, stressing that the presidency is never won from a position of decline.

While Duterte enjoys a “hard floor,” or a stable base of supporters, of about 25-35 percent, it would still not be enough to put her in Malacañang.

Duterte is also at a disadvantage when it comes to her track record on the national stage, as she has little to show from her stints as Department of Education Secretary and as Vice President.

“In terms of positioning, we can expect a striking contrast between Duterte and the good governance candidate. While Duterte will have no choice but to maintain a defensive stance and play the victim, her opponent will focus on the future and what could be – transparency, accountability and competent leadership,” he explained.

Masigan said that with corruption as a top voter concern, particularly among the youth and the middle class, it can shape the election outcome.

“Corruption is currently the second biggest concern of the electorate, only after cost of living. A decade of corrupt, incompetent and weak leaders have raised demands for reform. This is especially true among the youth, middle class and voters in Luzon and the Visayas. They comprise the decisive blocs,” he explained.

“That shift was evident in the 2025 elections, where reformist candidates like Bam Aquino, Kiko Pangilinan, Leila de Lima and Chel Diokno outperformed expectations. The surge in youth turnout – long underestimated by surveys – proved they can shape outcomes. In a two-way presidential race, this shift becomes determinative,” he added.

Masigan said historical precedents should also be considered, as vice presidents who declare their presidential ambitions early, and even frontrunners in pre-election surveys, rarely win.

“Consider the cases of Doy Laurel, Jejomar Binay and Manny Villar. Duterte’s early declaration, rather than pre-empting challengers, has effectively given them a longer runway to challenge her,” he pointed out.

Reference (column of Mr. Andrew Masigan): 

https://www.philstar.com/opinion/2026/04/29/2524291/why-sara-duterte-not-shoo-2028